ANCON professional scientific modelling results on Covid-19 in the UK

Data accurate on 20.03.2020.

The graph below shows the total deaths in UK vs. day number starting from day one when the first patient died on 7th March. Orange dots are actual data on mortality and the dotted line is extrapolation. There is also the mortality equation on the graph. The total number of deaths is a linear function of day on log scale. The linearity means we are far from controlling the spread of the disease.

Importantly every 5 days the number of total confirmed deaths is increasing by 10 times. The trendline predicts on 24th March -999 deaths; on 30th March – 11,726 deaths; on 5th April – 137,668 deaths and on 10th April – 1,072,068 deaths.

The assumptions are:
– The degree of isolation stays the same and Covid-19 did not mutate.
– We expect and hope to see the flattening of the mortality curve before it riches 1M deaths, at the moment there is no signs of it yet.

Research by Dr Boris Gorbunov – Founder of ANCON Medical and ANCON Technologies

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