Updated: scientific modelling results on Covid-19 deaths in the UK
Updated research data on total mortality prediction from Covid-19 coronavirus from Dr Boris Gorbunov – Founder of ANCON Medical and ANCON Technologies.
Latest data provided 26.03.2020.
The graph below shows the total deaths in UK vs. day number starting from day one when the first patient died on 7th March.
– Deaths data – orange circles.
– Dotted orange line – the total deaths trend predicted using earlier data up to 16th March (day 10 on the graph).
– Dashed read line – a new model based upon the latest data on mortality.
There is a slight flattening of the mortality prediction. However, there is not enough reliable evidence to predict 1,000 death toll by 5th April (day 30). The next 10-day period (from day 20 to day 30 on the graph) real mortality curve may be between these two lines: the orange dotted line (no social isolation) and the read dashed line based on assumption of isolation and other preventive measures.
Reliability is as accurate as available data can provide – total cases are unknown and other modelling modalities may be very unreliable.
– The regression equation is the mortality formula.
– Dots are actual total mortality data.
– Dotted orange line is the frozen on 13th March trendline. It shows the trend at the beginning of the outbreak before social distance restrictions were introduced.
The assumptions are:
– The degree of isolation stays the same and Covid-19 did not mutate.