Updated: scientific modelling results on Covid-19 in the UK
Updated research data on Covid-19 coronavirus from Dr Boris Gorbunov – Founder of ANCON Medical and ANCON Technologies.
Latest data provided 22.03.2020.
The graph below shows the total deaths in UK vs. day number starting from day one when the first patient died on 7th March. Orange dots are actual data on mortality and the dotted line is extrapolation. There is also the mortality equation on the graph. The total number of deaths is a linear function of day on log scale. The linearity means we are far from controlling the spread of the disease.
- Reliability is as accurate as available data can provide – total cases are unknown and other modelling modalities may be very unreliable.
- The regression equation is the mortality formula.
- Dots are actual total mortality data.
- Dotted orange line is the frozen on 13th March trendline. It shows the trend at the beginning of the outbreak before social distance restrictions were introduced.
- Green line shows current updated trend.
The assumptions are:
– The degree of isolation stays the same and Covid-19 did not mutate.
– We expect and hope to see the flattening of the mortality curve before it riches 1M deaths, at the moment there is no signs of it yet.